Altoris/Value Thermometer
Profit is not value. Value is a return above the cost of capital.
How Brazilian listed companies create and destroy value, measured every year using a public methodology.
points per R$100 of invested capital
Does the capital in the business earn more than it costs?
Profit, EBITDA and growth do not answer that question. A company can be profitable, grow and pay dividends while destroying shareholder value.
Where is the capital deployed?
Assets, working capital, acquisitions: everything shareholders and creditors have put into the business.
What return does it generate?
Operating profit after taxes, divided by invested capital.
Does that return exceed its cost?
Consistently above what creditors and shareholders require for the risk they bear.
Economic profit = (return on capital − cost of capital) × invested capital
ICVA 2025 · annual financial statements of listed companies
For every R$100 invested in Brazilian listed companies, the return came in R$5.90 below the minimum that capital requires.
In reais: R$239 billion below the cost of capital in 2025. Value destruction confirmed by three independent tests.
Below the cost of capital in 14 of the 15 years.
ICVA in points per R$100 of capital · 2011–2025worst year: 2015
only positive year: 2021
3-year ICVA (2023–2025)
return on capital in 2025, versus a 16.5% minimum required
View the values as a table
| Year | ICVA |
|---|
Three ideas the market repeats and the data refute.
Non-financial listed companies on B3, 2025.
EBITDA does not pay the bills.
Of every R$100 of EBITDA, only R$75 turned into operating cash; after capital expenditures, far less was left.
Growth is not value creation.
of the fastest-growing companies in 2025 destroyed value. Growth multiplies what already exists, destruction included.
Below fixed income.
of listed companies’ capital earned less than the Selic rate in 2025. Over 15 years, returns beat the Selic rate in only 6.
A company does not choose the Selic rate. It chooses its margin.
Size offers no protection, a short cash cycle is not enough, and paying out more dividends does not change the outcome. Capital discipline stops being a virtue and becomes a requirement.
of the differences between value creators and value destroyers lie in the return, not in the cost of capital
within the return, margin weighs almost four times as much as turnover
of the deterioration in 2025 came from the cost of capital: with high interest rates, companies that were breaking even now destroy value
The market rewards improvement.
Total shareholder return versus the change in economic spread, 2011–2025. Correlation is not causation.
years in which an improvement in return on capital went hand in hand with share price appreciation
per year in shareholder return in favor of those who improved their spread, over 3-year windows
per year between the quintile that improved most and the one that deteriorated most
The level does not predict the price. Companies already creating value did not outperform over the following 3 to 5 years: the price already reflects it.
The price requires a recovery. Even discounted at the NTN-F rate, company valuations require a 16.7% return, versus the 10.5% delivered.
Market insight for boards and shareholders.
Macro, sector and competitive analyses that turn market complexity into objective inputs for strategy, planning and capital decisions.
Macroeconomic outlook
Interest rates, credit, exchange rates and activity, and their effects on demand, costs and business financing.
Sector dynamics
Trends, cycles and consolidation moves that are reshaping the sector.
Competitive positioning
How the company compares with its peers on growth, margins, efficiency and use of capital.
Risks and opportunities
Early signals that show where to invest, where to protect and where to adjust course.
An index built to withstand scrutiny.
ICVA = sum of economic profit ÷ sum of invested capital = aggregate return on capital − aggregate cost of capital
Official data
CVM, B3, the National Treasury, the Central Bank of Brazil and Damodaran. No figure keyed in by hand.
Economic profit
Four standardized adjustments take accounting profit to economic profit, applied identically to every company.
Cost of capital in reais
Calculated company by company, using public, dated parameters.
Traceable
Every adjustment points back to its source line in the CVM filings; three automated checks on every calculation.
Reproducible
Each edition is a frozen vintage, with engine version and hash: anyone can redo the calculation.
Tested against inflation
Recalculated at current cost, with fixed assets and depreciation restated by IPCA inflation and a real cost of capital, the 2025 ICVA stands at −4.6, within a range of −5.9 to −3.1. Across the series since 2011, the effect ranges from −1.7 to +1.6 points, and the sign of the index does not change in any year.
Three ways to follow value creation in Brazil.
From the index to the individual company, the same yardstick: each company’s diagnosis follows the V.A.L.O.R. Program.
Public website
- ICVA for the year and the series since 2011
- Overview, sectors and rankings
- How we measure, with the full methodology
Report and news
- Annual ICVA edition in PDF
- New findings and studies by email
- Previews of the last 12 months
Restricted area
- Profile of each company
- Full cross-analyses
- Comparisons, time series and export
Get the report. Follow the findings. Access the data.termometrodevalor.altoris.com.br
SubscribeSource: Altoris Value Thermometer, 2025 edition. Non-financial listed companies on B3.